In a nation grappling with rising inflation, a weakening currency, and a deepening energy crisis, a major discovery in Pakistan’s hydrocarbon sector may offer a much-needed lifeline. Pakistan Oilfields Limited (POL) and Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) recently announced the successful completion of production testing at the Makori Deep-03 Development Well, located in the TAL Block of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, ushering in a new chapter in the country’s quest for energy security.
Drilled to a depth of 3,887 meters, the well has yielded promising results: 2,112 barrels per day of condensate and 22.08 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day. With surface infrastructure expected to be completed within the next two months, production is poised to commence soon after.
While POL holds a 25% interest in the project and OGDCL 27.763%, the strategic implications of this development go far beyond corporate shares. The Makori Deep-03 find could play a crucial role in easing Pakistan’s crippling dependence on imported fuels, a dependency that cost the country $17.5 billion in 2023 alone and threatens to double by 2030 if not addressed.
Pakistan imports an overwhelming majority of its energy: 85% of crude oil, 29% of natural gas, 50% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and 20% of coal. These staggering figures underscore the country’s vulnerability to global energy market fluctuations, particularly as domestic production has steadily declined.
Energy Minister Mohammad Ali has expressed cautious optimism. In comments made late last year, he noted that tapping just 10% of Pakistan’s estimated 235 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas reserves could drastically reduce the country’s fuel import bill. However, realising that potential will not be cheap. The government estimates that between $25 billion and $30 billion in investment is needed over the next decade to unlock even a fraction of these resources.
The Makori Deep-03 discovery, while significant, is only the beginning. Monetising such assets will require not only financial commitment but also robust infrastructure, regional security, and international trust, factors that have historically challenged Pakistan’s energy sector.
Earlier this year, Islamabad and Ankara took a bold step toward diversifying the country’s energy partnerships. In April, the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding to explore offshore energy opportunities in Pakistan’s territorial waters. Although specific details remain undisclosed, the agreement has been framed as a gateway for foreign direct investment (FDI) and a conduit for advanced technological collaboration.
“The strategic partnership with Turkey aims to bring in much-needed capital and upstream expertise,” the Petroleum Division stated. While it’s still early days, the move signals Pakistan’s intention to create a more favourable environment for foreign energy players, something the country desperately needs.
Yet past experience tempers expectations. In 2023, a much-anticipated auction of 18 oil and gas blocks failed to attract significant global participation. Compounding the problem, energy major Shell Plc announced its exit from Pakistan the same year, selling off its operations to Saudi Aramco in a wider effort to streamline its global portfolio.
Despite the potential, serious challenges remain. Security concerns have long plagued energy infrastructure and foreign investment in Pakistan. High-profile attacks, such as the 2024 suicide bombing that killed five Chinese engineers at the Dasu hydropower project and the Balochistan Liberation Army’s raid on the Gwadar Port complex, have raised alarms for international investors. The aftermath of these incidents led to a temporary suspension of several China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, undercutting momentum for new development.
Since its inception in 2015, CPEC has brought an estimated $25.4 billion into Pakistan, financing major upgrades to power and transport networks. Power projects alone have added 6,000 megawatts to the grid, while transmission lines and highways have expanded by more than 1,500 kilometers collectively. But the returns have not matched expectations. Today, nearly one-third of Pakistan’s ballooning $100 billion external debt is owed to China, and public frustration over unmet infrastructure promises is mounting.
Add to this a mounting balance-of-payments crisis, foreign exchange reserves scraping bottom, and an inflation rate nearing 30%, and the urgency of local energy development becomes clear.
The discovery at Makori Deep-03 has rekindled hope, but it remains a first step in a long journey. To translate reserves into relief, Pakistan must overcome entrenched barriers, chief among them, insufficient capital, policy uncertainty, and security risks.
Local media have hailed the discovery as potentially one of the largest in the region, though these claims await independent validation. Former Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) member Muhammad Arif commented on Dawn TV that, if confirmed as a substantial gas reservoir, the Makori Deep-03 site could eventually help offset Pakistan’s reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, a move that would dramatically improve the country’s balance of trade.
But even in the best-case scenario, developing these resources will take time. Exploration, infrastructure build-out, and operational readiness could take years, if not longer, especially given the complexity of the terrain and the current state of governance.
The hydrocarbon discovery in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa offers Pakistan more than just barrels and cubic feet, it offers a sliver of sovereignty in an increasingly volatile energy landscape. As the country teeters under the weight of economic and political strain, this development could serve as a catalyst for broader energy reforms, improved investor confidence, and perhaps even a shift in geopolitical alliances.
However, none of that will happen without clear policy direction, international cooperation, and a stable environment in which investment can flourish. For now, Makori Deep-03 is a bright spot, but whether it becomes a turning point depends on what Pakistan does next.